82: The Missing Variable

Love Longy! Definitely check out the interview he had on Phamtom Power Music Hour Episode 26! It's over a year old but still a good listen.

I'm posting this below the 2000 sat limit because I don't need you to read it on the pod but I know you read all of these and wanted to give a different perspective As a pilot, there are some outcomes that are so catastrophic that we build in lots and lots of mitigations so that we don’t EVER encounter them. An example is fuel. Running out of fuel increases the likelihood of a crash to nearly 100%. Meanwhile the actual incidence of fuel related crashes in commercial aviation is very close to 0. The fact that the incidence is close to 0 doesn’t mean we can safely remove fuel reserve requirements, or proper fuel planning processes. This is how I see the SPAM debate. There are some outcomes (e.g. illegal data in the chain) that are so bad that, even if we haven’t seen it yet, we have to build as many mitigations as possible. If the US government can prosecute the samourai developers despite Section 230, it’s hard to imagine that node operators that knowingly host illegal data would also be immune from prosecution as a way to attack Bitcoin. So we have to build in multiple layers of mitigation to prevent that catastrophe. With Core deciding to open up OP_RETURN to 100k bytes, they’ve taken away one of those mitigations. For me personally, best case scenario: OP_RETURN goes back to 83 bytes and the inscriptions bug gets fixed. Barring that, what is the next best mitigation in order to prevent the catastrophic result of illegal data on the chain? Certainly a soft fork is a far worse option. But it might be the next best option. Still I’d much rather that core come to their senses. If not, that more people run knots - or some other bitcoins that allows for filtering OP_RETURN. Only after both of those fail, would I like to see a soft fork. Because we can’t tolerate the catastrophic result of illegal data on chain.

Thanks. Greetings from Germany.

Texas just bought 10 million dollars worth of Bitcoin. Proud to be a Texan. Just wish it was real sats instead of IBIT. Baby steps.

Chris I’ve heard you talk about on-chain fees getting higher in the future making it unfeasible to manage multiple small amount UTXO’s. (Episode 8) If I DCA via Strike then move consolidated large chunks into a hot wallet, do I still have all those little UTXO’s from strike or did I not create a new larger one moving them to my app wallet? What if I then move from the app wallet to cold storage? Still preserves the multiple small UTXO’s? Thanks.

Love the signal. I have a weekly/monthy budget for buys. I opt for slightly larger amounts than a typical daily and buy when I see the bigger down legs. But not the “all in” smash buys. I’ve heard straight DCA beats timing the market over the long run but I like knowing I got even a little bit at the lowest drops. And if eat through my budget prematurely then I can always sell my car, the dog, the kids, anything I can get my hands on until I mine more fiat. But can’t we all agree buying at any price today is a good deal in four years?

First time boosting in to TwiB! I am a total bitcoin newbie and really enjoy your breakdown of the macro news. You've convinced me to start stacking those SATs, thanks for that! I am considering noding up, and was about to go Knots to balance out the network. But all this BIP 444 business has convinced me to go core 30 with tweaked settings. Will report back once I get it up and running!

Appreciate the content 🤙

I make a regular DCA buy at the same time of every month, for the same amount. I don’t try to time peaks or dips, I just buy, consolidate and move to cold storage. It works for me: keep it simple, remove the emotion, get in a regular routine, store you “savings” in cold storage. Tick, tock…

Of course I stick with the DCA (€CA) Chris! That’s the whole point ; )

I hope sanity prevails

🤙 TWIB has become my only news podcast each week…Might skim the headlines but other than that! Keep up the great work.

The Orange Pill is a hard one to swallow some days!

Also the 444 locking up utxos is the stupidest thing I've heard. If I'm a bad actor I'm not doing that kinda thing with my life saving stack. I'm using a wallet I just made and a hand full of sats from a BTC ATM.

I think if Trump was serious about bringing back manufacturing to the US you would see those around him investing in that sort of thing. This would be the investment opportunity of a lifetime. Instead you see those folks going to him to get special deals and exemptions to keep doing what they are doing. It's all about being the gate keeper and having control and not about setting American up for success.

I'm not picking a side here. I just want to clarify Mechanic's point as I understand it. A scammer just needs to get Granny to double-click on an application that does those things automatically. Fetch op return data from a block on the chain, does whatever parsing and chopping, and then runs it locally on her machine (stealing her credit card number or passwords or whatever arbitrary malicious malware activity). If the scammer hosted this malware on his own server, downloads would leave a paper trail that investigators could follow. Uploading the malware to any other public server would likely be blocked or filtered by whatever security and content restrictions that plarform has. his point is the Bitcoin blockchain becomes the least filtered, easiest place to upload that sort of thing. whether one sees this as a problem or not is up for debate, but I wanted the argument to at least be clear.

The tariff dividends denominated in USD are inflationary. One example: Fiat payouts expand the use of dollars, and sending money to individuals instead of paying down the debt carries an opportunity cost and prolongs inflation. Simply put, when you play fiat games you win fiat prizes.

you asked how the bill pay thing works for me: i get "bank account and routing numbers" from Strike, where i have a bitcoin balance and zero USD. i put that "bank" account number in my credit card, mortgage, car payment, etc. - literally everywhere. so all my USD bills are paid from my bitcoin "checking account" balance in Strike. importantly, i have an auto-withdraw threshold on Strike where anything above that amount is moved to a (new) address in my cold storage automatically. so life is like: get paid in bitcoin; "checking account" balance stays in Strike for monthly expenses; excess above that is automatically hodled in cold storage. it's actually fairly mindblowing...

ATFav pod. Strike or Cash app should make their own plug and instant connect to your account versions of a bitax. I know no wild stats but let anyone watch electric become money and you then have a bitcoiner. Option to solo or pool and that will drive true adoption. It’s; hope, fun, interesting and helps the network. This is the way.

Longy!

Assuming the money printers are about to go in full blast and being wrong would void this whole argument. It will come eventually but you underestimate the pain needed to bring in agenda 2030 and it’s possibly not going to zero rate and infinity printing soon.

Thank you sir